Russo-Ukrainian War
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke to American president Joe Biden and urged NATO members to speed up Ukraine's request for membership. A Kremlin spokesman said that Russian military movements pose no threat, but Russian official Dmitry Kozak warned that Russian forces could act to "defend" Russian citizens in Ukraine, and any escalation of the conflict would mean "the beginning of the end of Ukraine" – "not a shot in the leg, but in the face". At the time some half a million people in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic had been issued with Russian passports since fighting broke out in 2014. On 22 April 2021, Russian Minister of Defence Sergey Shoygu announcing an exercise drawdown with troops returning to base by 1 May, but leaving equipment at the Pogonovo training facility for the annual exercise with Belarus in September 2021.
On 1 September 2021, citing "senior Biden administration officials," The New York Times reported that Russia had only withdrawn a few thousand troops since the previous Russian military build-up in the spring of 2021. The article in the NYT put the number of Russian troops in the border regions at some 80,000.
In September 2021, Ukraine conducted military exercises with NATO forces. The Kremlin warned that NATO expanding military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross "red lines" for President Putin. Also in September, up to 200,000 Russian troops were taking part in Zapad 2021, a large joint Russia-Belarussian military exercise, centered on what the Russian General Staff terms the Western strategic direction.
On 13 November, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia has again amassed 100,000 troops in the border area, higher than the U.S. assessment of about 70,000. In early November, reports of Russian military buildups prompted U.S. officials to warn the EU that Russia could be planning a potential invasion of Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denied allegations that Russia is preparing for a possible invasion of Ukraine. He accused Ukraine of "planning aggressive actions against Donbass." Peskov urged NATO to stop "concentrating a military fist" near Russia's borders and to stop arming Ukraine with modern weapons.
On 30 November 2021, President Putin stated that an expansion of NATO's presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Moscow or missile defence systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a "red line" issue for the Kremlin. He said that these missile-defense systems may be converted into launchers of offensive Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated: "It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence to try to control their neighbors."
On 1 December 2021, Russia accused Ukraine of deploying half its army – about 125,000 troops – in Donbas to confront pro-Russian separatists. On 3 December, President Putin criticized Ukraine for using a Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone against pro-Russian separatists in Donbas, saying the move violated the Minsk peace agreements. According to Ozgur Unluhisarcikli of the German Marshall Fund, Turkish-made "drones provided to Azerbaijan were a decisive factor" in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, "and Russia knows this". On 9 December, Russia accused Ukraine of moving heavy artillery towards the front line where separatists are fighting with Ukrainian forces. Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, stated that [NATO's] "Deliveries of helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles and airplanes to Ukraine are pushing the Ukrainian authorities to take sharp and dangerous steps. Any provocations of the Ukrainian authorities by way of a forced settlement of the problems of Donbass will be suppressed." On 17 January 2022, British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced that Britain is supplying Ukraine with anti-armor weaponry by air. Russian troops and weapons began arriving in Belarus for the 'Allied Resolve' joint exercise, which starts in February.
U.S. intelligence officials warned that Russia was planning a major military offensive into Ukraine in January 2022. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, threatened U.S. support for an anti-Russian insurgency inside Ukraine. On 19 January 2022, President Joe Biden said that he thinks Russia will invade Ukraine. Biden said a full-scale invasion of Ukraine would be "the most consequential thing that's happened in the world in terms of war and peace" since World War II.
The United States has estimated that Russia could assemble 175,000 troops to invade Ukraine. Ukraine's Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that "we have 250,000 official ... members of our army. Plus, I said 400,000 veterans and 200,000 reservists. 175,000 (is) not enough to go to Ukraine." Reznikov said that Russia could launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine in late January 2022.
The United States accused Russia of plans to send saboteurs into Ukraine to stage "a false flag operation" that would create a pretext for Russia to invade Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov dismissed the U.S. claim as "total disinformation." The Kremlin has repeatedly denied that it has any plans to invade Ukraine.
On 25 January 2022, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he currently sees no threat of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated the variety of Russian troops massed on Ukraine's borders "are not enough for a full-scale invasion."
The US rejected Russia's demand to bar Ukraine from NATO in a formal response by US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken.
On 28 January 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the West not to create a "panic" in his country over a potential Russian invasion, adding that constant warnings of an "imminent" threat of invasion are putting the economy of Ukraine at risk. Zelensky said that "we do not see a bigger escalation" than in early 2021 when Russia's military build-up started.
On 11 February 2022, Biden's national security advisor Jake Sullivan publicly warned about the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine prior to the end the 2022 Winter Olympics, urging all Americans to leave Ukraine immediately. U.S. intelligence released details regarding how an invasion into Ukraine by Russia may occur. These included the possibility of air raids by Russia as well as missile strikes, electronic warfare, followed by a ground invasion. The U.S. intelligence indicated that Russia is planning to invade Ukraine on 16 February 2022.
On 15 February 2022, Russia claims to have removed some of its forces from the Ukrainian border in what some believe to be a de-escalation attempt. However, the situation remains uncertain and the move by Russia has been met with suspicion from Western leaders, which was further enhanced after Ukraine was cyber attacked the same day, believed to have been orchestrated by Russia. U.S. president Joe Biden remains unconvinced that Russia will not invade and urged all Americans in Ukraine to evacuate immediately. The foreign minister of Poland, Zbigniew Rau, travelled to Moscow to discuss the current situation in a further attempt to prevent war. Some sources claim that Russian forces have moved even closer to the Ukrainian border equipped with medical supplies as well as being positioned into firing positions.
On 17 February 2022, a Ukrainian kindergarten building was shelled by artillery, suspected to have been orchestrated by Russian forces. No one was killed in the attack and Moscow denies its involvement. Western leaders warn the shelling could be a 'false-flag' operation in which Russia could justify an invasion of Ukraine.
On 20 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that diplomatic attempts to resolve the Ukraine conflict must be stepped up. He stressed the fact that in order to prevent conflict, NATO must take Moscow's demands for security guarantees seriously. Putin blasted NATO for "pumping sophisticated weaponry and ammunition" into Ukraine after a phone talk with French President Emmanuel Macron.
On 22 February 2022, the United States and United Kingdom announced that they would begin imposing sanctions against Russia in the following days. This comes a day after Putin stated that he officially recognises Donetsk and Luhansk as independent regions and began sending troops into these parts of Eastern Ukraine. Putin claims the presence of more Russian forces is simply to maintain peace, however, this was met with great backlash from world leaders. The same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he will consider the possibility of severing Ukraine's diplomatic relations with Russia.
On 23 February 2022, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, declared a state of emergency period for 30 days for the whole of Ukraine, excluding the Donetsk and Luhansk regions which have been in a state of emergency since 2014.
On 21 February 2022, the Russian government claimed that Ukrainian shelling had destroyed an FSB border facility on the Russia Ukraine border, and claimed that it had killed 5 Ukrainian soldiers who tried to cross into Russian territory. Ukraine denied being involved in both incidents and called them a false flag. On the same day, the Russian government formally recognized the self-proclaimed DPR and LPR as independent states, according to Putin not only in their de-facto controlled areas, but the Ukrainian Oblasts as a whole, and Putin ordered Russian troops, including tanks, to enter the regions.
On 24 February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine by Russian Armed Forces previously concentrated along the border. The invasion followed by targeted airstrikes of military buildings in the country, as well as tanks entering via the Belarus border. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared martial law throughout Ukraine. Air raid sirens were heard throughout Ukraine for most of the day. Ukraine's ICT infrastructure has already deteriorated as a result of Russian cyber-attacks and bombardments. Several Ukrainian cities or buildings have been occupied, including the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. However, per a US defence official, Russians forces are "meeting more resistance" in advance towards Kyiv "than they expected"; a statement repeated by James Heappey, Britain's current Minister for the Armed Forces the next day.
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