The new political season in Ukraine launched in a highly difficult situation. Expectations of further Russian aggression, the united stance of Western nations in support of Ukraine following President Joe Biden’s infelicitous comments, and mounting economic challenges have made Ukrainian domestic politics even more complex since these three major issues stand in a contradictory relationship to one another. This new political complexity tests the ability of the Zelensky administration to successfully lead Ukraine in what promises to be a stormy 2022.
1. Ukraine’s Security and New Twists to European and Euro-Atlantic Integration
Last year, the presidential team expended enormous effort to quickly achieving a membership perspective in the EU and NATO. Despite that effort, integration with the EU is so far limited to an Association Agreement and closer cooperation. Membership in NATO has been declared possible, but seemingly not soon. Now that the risks of a direct military conflict between Russia and Ukraine have grown, this result is bitter indeed.
The dispiriting results of 2021 are unlikely to dissuade the Zelensky administration from continuing its attempts at European and Euro-Atlantic integration. However, official Kyiv has moved on to other possibilities of forming a strategic partnership with European nations. In January 2022 the Ukrainian political class seems to be inspired by the idea of an alliance with the UK and Poland. The Lublin triangle—an informal grouping comprising Ukraine, Lithuania, and Poland—offers some hope in the way of indirect Euro-Atlantic integration; the latter two countries are already NATO members. The UK and the Baltic countries have started delivering military supplies to increase Ukraine’s capacity to resist a possible Russian attack.
Kyiv’s Western geopolitical choice seems to unite the ruling party and some opposition parties (European Solidarity, Holos/Voice, and Batkivshchyna). Also, over 50 percent of Ukrainians support membership in the EU (58 percent) and NATO (54 percent).
Despite the Zelensky administration’s endeavors and a growing need for support of Ukraine as it faces the threat of a Russian military incursion, the policy priority of European and Euro-Atlantic integration will need to be pursued and united around for a much longer time—longer than a single presidential term. The Western nations do support Ukraine financially, politically, and with weapons. Yet in the winter of 2021–2022, Ukraine is on its own on a possible battlefield.
2. Deoligarchization: Further Steps, with Disheartening Results
The second political priority for President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team is deoligarchization. Indeed, Zelensky has entered a critical phase of his presidency with the approval of the acts “against oligarchs” and against their incomes. In order to destroy the oligarchs’ influence on society (through their control of mass media) and their illegitimate sources of wealth (siphoning funds from the state budget, tax evasion, ongoing privatization), two legal acts have already been approved, Act 5599 and Act 5600. The first act stipulates the creation of a special institution to identify individual oligarchs through an assets test and limit their influence on society, political groups, and government. The second act increases the costs of doing business for certain oligarchic groups. According to the calculations of Forbes.Ua experts, the proper implementation of these laws could cost the billionaire Rinat Akhmetov, a prominent opponent of Zelensky, up to $1 billion, while the costs for other oligarchs allegedly would be inconsequential.
3. Issues with Economic Growth and Infrastructural Development
According to the National Bank of Ukraine, the pace of Ukraine’s economic growth has been slower than expected: GDP growth in 2021 barely reached 3 percent. Several economic sectors were hit by skyrocketing gas prices, the pandemics had a strong negative impact on household income for the second year in a row, and fiscal consolidation failed to support economic growth. And the threat of Russia’s attack scares away investors—a factor that undermines the possibilities for economic growth even more.
One of President Zelensky’s flagship projects, the Big Construction, was expected to boost Ukraine’s economy and improve the country’s aging infrastructure. In the framework of the project, Ukrainians are to get new roads and bridges, as well as rebuilt schools, hospitals, railway stations, and sport facilities. However, the project faces several challenges. First of all, many companies that implement the construction works derive the bulk of their materials from abroad, thus supporting more foreign than Ukrainian industries. Second, a project with a multibillion-hryvnia budget was an easy prey for corruption. According to the State Audit Service’s report (as of December 20, 2021), out of an audited 60 billion UAH (slightly more than 2 billion USD), more than 30 billion UAH in spending was recognized as “used ineffectively.” Some was allegedly misused in corrupt schemes promulgated by a younger generation of politicians.
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